Highlights from the Big Pharma Report posted on AOL's Motley Fool PFE Board.
-One of the busiest weeks in PFE history.
-PFE made the cover of three national magazines!
-The most comprehensive Big Pharma Report ever.
-Three analysts to watch out for.
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
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Big Pharma Report- 5/02/98
Week
Big Pharma (+0.9%) was flat matching the Dow (+0.9%) , S&P (+1.8%) and ahead of the NAStie (-0.7%).
The urge to merge Pharmas were this week's winners: GLX (+8.2%), PNU (+5.8%), and SBH (+5.0%). Last week's winners gave back some of the gains; LLY (-5.3%), PFE (-4.8%), and SGP (-1.4%). Only WLA reached its all-time high one week before its 3-1 split.
APRIL 1998
Big Pharma gained 2.1% for the month as compared to the Dow (+3.0%), S&P (+0.9%), and the NASTIE (+1.8%). Da Cup(+14.2%) edged out PFE (+14.2%) for the monthly honors, while WLA (+11.2%) was close behind. MRK (-6.0%) was the Big Pharma laggard based on more Zocor concerns.
YTD 1998
Big Pharma (+20.7%) is ahead of the Dow (+15.7%), the S&P (+15.5%), and the NASTie (+19.3%).
It's 50/50. WLA (+51.4%) has edged ahead of PFE (+51.0%). The rest of the field is clearly behind with Da Cup (-4.8%) back in the red. Hasta Evista again!
Big Pharma News You Can Use
-In response to the Lipitor surge, MRK on Friday announced a major Zocor discount program for hospitals.
-LLY came under pressure as Merrill Lynch cut its rating to accumulate from buy citing lower than expected sales of Evista.
-WLA announced Lipitor first quarter sales of $378 million. Total sales of Lipitor and Aricept were $456 million.
Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
-CS First Boston downgraded PFE on Thursday am (112 5/8) to hold from buy. (Interpretation:sell) Reason: " high expectations for Viagra reflected in share price. I think the valuation is fair."
-Salomon Smith Barney raised its 1999 PFE earnings and target price for PFE to $155.
-Aros Securities reiterated its buy with a 12 month target price of $130.
-Nationsbank Montgomery Securities maintained its buy with a 12-18 month target price of $132.
General thoughts about analysts' reports, downgrades and upgrades. Don't believe them!!!! Most of the analysts are influenced by their previous positions, current positions and portfolio ownerships of their brokerage houses.
Here are three analysts who will most likely promote negative reports on PFE during the next three months:
Wole Fayemi (Cruttenden Roth): Prior to joining CR, Mr. Fayemi was the pharmaceutical analyst for Genesis Securities , an underwriter for Vivus, manufacturer of MUSE. During his stay at Genesis, Mr. Fayemi was consistent in issuing strong buys for Vivus. Since October, 1997, VVUS has lost 75% of its value.
Charles Olsziewski (Paine Webber): Paine Webber is the underwriter for Vivus. Similar to Wole Fayemi, Mr.Olsziweski has strongly recommended VVUS.
Alex Zisson (Hambrecht & Quist): H & R own 4.1% of VVUS
ED News You Can Use
-Viagra is the Christie Brinkley of pharmaceutical products this week....featured on the covers of :
Business Week
US News & World Report
Time Magazine
-IMS has reported that 51% of Viagra Rxs were being paid in part by insurers as compared to 76% for all Rx drugs.
-Viagra Media Watch
Media coverage of Viagra is basically out of control. There are currently 29 basic media themes ranked below according to their current exposure.
The major risks to PFE are overblown stories concerning "Use in Healthy Men", "Abuse Potential and Overprescribing", and "Danger of Side Effects". The most important theme that is being missed by the media is the impact of Viagra in breaking the "stigma of impotence".
Current
Rank Exposure ..... Media Theme
1 High.... Overwhelming Demand
2 High.... HMO/Insurance Reimbursement
3 High.... Usage in Women
4 Medium.... Use in Healthy Men
5 Medium..... Impact on PFE Stock
6 Medium..... Rx and Sales Levels
7 Medium..... Abuse Potential & Overprescribing
8 Medium..... Editorial Columns
9 Medium..... Humorous
10 Medium ......Sexual Revolution & Politics & relationships
11 Medium ......Discovery
12 Low...... Danger of Side Effects & Adverse Reactions
13 Low...... Internet Prescribing
14 Low...... Pharmacy Pricing
15 Low.......International
16 Low.......Stigma of Impotence
17 Low...... Phony Viagras
18 Low...... Vatican Review
19 Low...... Competitive ED Products
20 Low.......Editorial Cartoons
21 Low...... Men & Midlife
22 Low...... Q& A
23 Low.......Smuggling Into Foreign Countries
24 Low.......Political
25 Low...... Attempts to Illegally Obtain Viagra
26 Low...... Combinations of ED Products
27 Low...... Pharmacology of Viagra
28 Low...... Use as a Preventative to ED
29 Low...... Security Concerns
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