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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 157.75

+1.5%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (3189)	5/3/1998 11:28:00 AM
From: T Bowl	Read Replies (1) of 9256

<<Tom, thanks for your thoughts. It looks like the density improvements can take care of additional storage demand without making an increase in component count necessary. You're absolutely right: more components per drive would cost much more than the components themselves. I bought a new PC with a 3.2 GB Fireball drive a year ago. I use about 1.2 GB of it. I'm probably a fairly typical home user, not storing lots of images, no games. In fact I resist installing additional software, because more often than not it brings grief (even though I'm fairly PC literate.)>> GM - I agree 100% with your statement above. On all counts. I read the Foolish article on APM last week and was blown away by the statement that they expect component growth to exceed DD unit growth. What rubbish! My PC at work has two 3.2GB WDCs and I'm a long way from filling them up. It's a lot of space and I'm now a big fan of CD-WR drives. I carry a few CDs with important info when I travel with a laptop because everyone has a CD drive. We're already looking at cheap 11GB DDs from Maxtor, projections show dirt cheap 4GB/platter drives by the end of 98. Imagine 16GB DDs for <$300! I can't imagine needing that much storage. And then as long as I'm being bearish on my beloved DD industry, did anyone notice the details of the Trendfocus article recently? They projected DD units to go from 131mil this year to 223mil in 2001; that's 14% annual growth. Not too bad huh? But if you look a little deeper they project total revenue to grow from $26bil to $30bil in 2000. That means ASPs to drop from $199 to $137each! Total rev growth for this industry is gonna grow at a slim 4% according to TrendFocus!! (*%&^%$ I for one don't give a hoot how many units they sell, I want to see profits increase! Is this significant to anyone else? Oh dear, Lawrence is projecting the death of Goldilocks, Stitch is gonna have to start drinking Evian in Malaysia, my love affair with the DD industry is starting to fade... Where's it all headed? Anyone know of another industry I can lose money in? todd

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