Highlights from this week's Peabody Report posted on AOL's Motley Fool PFEr Board:
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Peabody Model Trend Prediction: PFE reached another Peabody Valley last week and is headed higher to a new Peabody Peak.
Future News That Will Effect PFE:
-Viagra third week new Rxs report (IMS Report due on Monday)
-Valuation/ PE concerns
-Any credible reports of unexpected Viagra adverse reactions
-Big Pharma momentum
-General market corrections
Peabody Portfolio: +120.8%
Report Highlights: -New Pending Peabody Valley of 109.38 reached on 4/30/98
-Second Portfolio purchase made within a two week period.
The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board.
Invest only after conducting your own research.
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
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The Peabody Report: 5/03/98
Peabody Peak/Valley Status
Click here for the Peabody Daily Log of PFE prices since 12/31/97.
Peabody Model Trend Prediction
Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction:
PFE reached another Peabody Valley last week and is headed higher to a new Peabody Peak.
Commentary
The media frenzy surrounding Viagra is unprecedented in the history of Big Pharma. The volatility associated with this frenzy will continue as the world follows the Viagra story. Risks and rewards will also increase as the battle between momentum players and concerned valuation analysts continue.
I believe the short-term key will be reports of Viagra's specification. As Joseph Riccardo, senior managing director of Bear Stearns said last week :
"Prescriptions make sales...make earnings...make stock price."
After a huge 12.6% in the prior week, PFE gave back 4.8% as a new pending Peabody Valley was reached on Thursday, April 30th.
As noted in previous Peabody Reports, major breaking market and Big Pharma news could impact PFE including; quarterly earnings reports, Viagra New Rxs and sales reports, Viagra in the media, unexpected Viagra adverse reactions, market corrections, instability in Asia, and Big Pharma partnerships and merger mania.
Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy.
New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the
remainder at near Peabody Valleys
Peabody Short-term PForecasts
Peabody Short-Term PForecast (4/26/98): PFE: 118.25, DJ: 9,065: The eyes of the investment world are on PFE while the ears of the world are on news about Viagra. Expect another gap up on Monday. Then, anything can happen. The difference between the Top 3 and The Bottom 10 in Big Pharma indicates Big Pharma may be correcting. New correlations in Da Model indicate PFE, WLA and SGP may be taking their own path. Gut Feel: A new Peabody Peak is guaranteed this week. However, as PFE moves higher, the volatility and risks increase. Expect 125 to be broken!
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Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: PFE never recovered from a weak Monday market. For you TA fans a nice base was held @110. Never listen to guarantees! Thumbs down!
Peabody PForecast Record (59 weeks): 37-22 (63%)
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Peabody Short-Term PForecast (5/03/98): PFE: 112.63, DJ: 9,147: PFE should logically follow Monday's report of Viagra's New Rx's in its third week. This number should be huge and PFE should fly again. One growing caution: at this point the media frenzy is becoming a negative factor. The FDA will not stand for any misue of Rx drugs being promoted by the media. Any FDA action could result in a 5-10% PFE correction. That said; PFE is headed higher to 115+ and beyond. Long-term I have never been more bullish!!
Peabody Portfolio (+120.8%) PFE @ 112.63
The Peabody Portfolio has more than doubled in less than two years. In April, 1998, the Peabody Portfolio added 400 new PFE shares to the Porfolio.
The mythical Peabody Portfolio consists of Mr. Peabody's 15 aggressive PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996 . A total of 200 shares (100 shares pre-split) were purchased at each recommendation.
To date, the Portfolio has purchased 3,000 PFE shares at an average price of $51.02 (only 3.7% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys).
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# PFE Shares Purchased: 3,000
Average Price of Purchases: $51.02
Total Costs: $153,063
Total Market Value: $337,890
Total Potential Profit: $184,827
Future Actions That Will Effect PFE
ED news in the media Throughout 1998
Asia, Iraq and Clinton news Throughout 1998
Viagra Rx and sales trends Throughout 1998
AUA Meeting-presentation of Viagra data May 30-June 4,1998
FDA review of Zeldox June, 1998
European approval of Viagra September, 1998
Launch of Zeldox July, 1998 |
