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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Tom Trader who wrote (18229)5/3/1998 1:27:00 PM
From: Judy  Read Replies (2) of 50167
 
Good morning, my dear

Re: "to put this to the test you need to let me know BEFORE the signal is generated thru e-mail or SI"

Listen to me carefully, my dear, even though that is hard for you to do! Whenever I say I am about to go long or sell puts or vice versa ... that is the cue that I see stocks and/or the market at a pivotal point about to turn.

Most times I've gone long while you have been under a sell signal, and your system often confirms my read 2-3 days later with a buy signal. Noting that your signals are correct about half the time, the key is that when the signals are not spurious ... they are correct in a BIG way. The signals are useful in the sense that if they confirm my read, I may let my existing positions run longer or add to them ... depending on the overall context of the market.

Individual stocks often behave differently than what is reflected by the overall indices. Whether my read is an accurate precursor to your signals is academic since the trading vehicles are different. The signals are spurious half the time and more short-term oriented than many of my trades ... so my read cannot be a more accurate precursor to your signals than half the time. Would be better to focus on the magnitude of correctness rather than the frequency ... with all signs confirming.
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