Mike, I am one of the traders you are probably referring to. I, for one,
do not get upset if someone says something negative. Frankly, I think
that MU is way over priced. Friday, I bought 10 May 35 puts to hold
for 1 or 2 days, as there was only an 1/8 premium and will move
point for point with the stock. The TA people like Larry, DavidG,
John, me and others are waiting to see which way MU breaks out of
the present triangle.
If the stock starts in an upward trend, I don't care how negative things
look for MU, I will bet on the trend. In 95, I was buying calls up to
and past 95. Switched to puts on the downside.
You referred back to the .65 average. I stated then, and will repeat,
I don't care about the earnings back then, as they will tell us nothing
about 98 or 99 earnings. Nor do the 98 and 99 earnings matter much
to a trader.
As for long term, if I had to make a choice of going long or shorting MU,
and had to hold for 4 or 5 years without exiting the position, I would
rather be long. However, given a choice, I would rather go long CSCO,
DELL, MSFT or many other stocks before MU. There are too many
better stocks than MU for the long side.
On the out-of-the-money options thing, that you, Skeeter and MB like,
I just don't think that you guys have done any analysis on a spreadsheet
to compare odds. I've never been to a racetrack, but I assume people
spend a lot of time to study the horses to bet a hundred bucks. Why
don't people spend a day studying the option odds if you're going to
bet five grand on an option play?
I have done a lot of spreadsheet analysis, and have come to the
conclusion that the odds are much greater with the in-the-money options.
I also prefer the same month strike, rather than 3 or more months out.
There are dozens of ways to play options, and everyone has their own
preference. I just recommend that anyone that buys some options, paper
trade some other strikes or time periods, and review the results after a
year.
Many people follow MB's actions. Just remember, he has a whole lot
more money than we do, and only a small percentage is in options.
And may MU crash tomorrow!
Patrick |
