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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 145.00

+2.0%

Jan 23 4:00 PM EST

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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (11176)	5/3/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Abner Hosmer	Read Replies (1) of 116906

Bobby - How about this one: Maybe the oil suppliers have to go through the same kind of shakeout as the gold miners before they will regain pricing power? At least they have a shot. The gold miners still have years worth of above ground supply staring them in the face. At what point do stocks cease to behave as equities and start to act like commodities? As long as we have continued economic growth and low inflation, I don't see why valuations can't continue to exceed historical norms by a further margin. I tend to think that inflation is bottoming, or has bottomed, and that worldwide growth will continue, putting upward pressure on commodities prices. But the wild card in this is Japan. I think that Japan still has serious problems which are only going to get worse. I think the idea that they can be cured by temporary tax reductions and government spending is totally absurd, and I think it's inevitable that their crises will deepen, and their currency will weaken as long as they continue down this path. Tom

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