i am putting an interesting post here for you all to dissect.
A lot of you 1772 people have probably seen it as it has been on a few threads..but just in case I will put it here.
btw TT....I think you need to solidify the terms of your bet with OJ...then present it to OJ...I am sure he will say OK to whatever...because he thinks it is a sure thing... I hope so as I am looking forward to some baklava....speaking of baklava...saw a post from Judy calling it "balakva"..and when someone mentioned it to her..her response was one you could probably use against her next time she tells you to be PRECISE... LOL....
To: +Investor2 (17845 )
From: +Lucretius Taurus
Sunday, May 3 1998 12:27AM ET
Reply # of 17870
I posted this earlier on the gold thread, but thought you guys might enjoy it. Just a little
list that I've been meaning to write down. Kinda scared myself, after I did it? I've been
following this thread for a couple of months now since I recently turned bearish. I see on
last mad dash to new highs by the DOW lead by only a few stocks as the broader mkt
diverges. I think we're nearing the end. I give it 2 or 3 months, tops. If you can add to
the list below please do. Could be nothing, but when the arguments are there looking
you right in the face, it is hard to blow them off IMO.
Enjoy:
Bearish Sell signals:
1. adv/decline line has diverged form major ave
2. TRAN and UTIL have diverged form SPX and INDU
3. NASCRAP appears to be putting in a head and shoulders
4. Internet stocks continue to explode everyday (these trash stocks are a sign of
rampant speculation. Money managers can't find real value in the mkt so they are
throwing money att hopes and dreams)
5. Bull/Bear ratio still firmly in the camp of the Bull
6. Gold has turned around and uptrend is intact(notice it was down on Fri because of a
false rumor that Belgium would be selling gold. Belgium came out after thee close and
said "Nope, untrue.") Compare the XAU and TYX, they look VERY similar. XAU is
leading.
7. TYX appears to be heading up. Don't be fooled by Thurs & Fri's slight pullback
below 6%, notice we closed up near the open on Fri back near the high of the day... a
strong reversal signal.
8. $ continues to get pounded by Mark as EURO approaches. Japs are defending Yen
and will continue to pump it up. Money will flow out of US as dollar declines.
9. 60% of US households are invested in the stock mkt..... the most in HISTORY.
10. Mutual fund cash levels are at a 10 yr low
marketgauge.com
11. stock mkt is everywhere. I have noticed over the past yr more and more mutual
fund, and brokerage commercials on mainstream TV, radio and print. There was even
an article in Rolling Stone about the "roaring mkt"
12. earnings yr-over-yr are declining
13. the leaders are breaking down.... BKX (looks to be putting in a head and
shoulders) NASCRAP is topping off. KO and G have both broken down
14. Insider selling has increased to a record pace over the past 3 months. G insiders
have been dumping stock right and left.
15. Signs of inflation: wage protests detailed in newspaper recently as workers complain
about CEO's stock options and their low wages, real estate mkt is on fire. building has
picked up markedly everywhere, I think you all know about the increase in oil prices
that is coming, nat gas prices are up, food prices will be increasing cause of El Nino, gen
asset inflation of stock mkt and real estate. IMO, Fed would have acted long ago but
was afraid of collapsing the mkt, now they can't do anything as the mkt runs out of
control or they will be blamed for the ensuing disaster. I think their just hoping it will
correct itself and not implode, hence the article in WS urinal
16. X-chge seats peaked about 2 mnths ago and have been trending down.
17. oils are always the last stocks to move in an aging Bull (we're seeing that now)
18. no need to discuss P/E levels at all-time highs and div yields at all-time lows
19. foreign money has been pouring into the US mkt over the last 4 months (historically
this money arrives at tops)
20. Now for the touchy-feely stuff:
a. bull on the cover of newsweek
b. bull on the cover of Barrons this weekend
c. AFC won the superbowl
d. hemlines came down this yr
e. CNBC's ratings have exploded over the past 6 months.
f. CNBC is now being shown in Times Square on
the Sony big screen
g. many friends of mine (against my advise) have taken out home
equity loans over the past 3 months to put it in the mkt cause it seems like they can't
lose.
h. Bill Clinton commented on Thurs that "his opponents can't
compete w/ his ideas, afterall look what we have... roaring
economy and a roaring stock market."
i Elaine Garzarelli came out Fri and is extremely bullish
(contrary indicator) and made the same arguments for a mkt rise that
I've read about 1920's economists making about why the mkt could
go to even more lofty levels right before the 1929 crash
j. Bull mkt tops are made at the height of euphoria when all anyone sees is up and good
things for the future (kinda where we are, notice that every analyst is looking for around
10,000 this yr, and then higher later. NOBODY sees any problems. Some see a slight
correction but nothing to be concerned about. Valuation is rationalized away like I used
to do when I was a kid explaining to my dad why I spray-painted a wall in the house....
"it needed color, dad. I didn't mean to. If you look up you can't see it." |
