>>Listen to me carefully, my dear, even though that is hard for you to do!<<
Easy for me to listen to you -- now agreeing with you takes a while longer:)
>>Noting that your signals are correct about half the time, the key is that when the signals are not spurious ... they are correct in a BIG way<<
No so my dear--the signals turn out to be winning trades only about half the time -- the signals are correct, in terms of denoting immediate market direction, probably 70-80% of the time. What I mean by this is that once a signal is triggered, the immediate direction of the market does seem to be in the direction of the signal and hence profitable but by the time it reverses direction, those profits are sometimes whittled away. To illustrate my point, the last buy signal was generated with the June futures at 1116 -- they closed on Friday at 1130. If the market reverses on Monday and I get a sell signal at say 1115, it is a losing trade -- but the original signal would have been anything but spurious, since it has generated a profit to date of 14 points.
Just the way the system is designed--one has to be willing to part with some profits to catch those big winners.
>>Individual stocks often behave differently than what is reflected by the overall indices<<
That is a given
>>Whether my read is an accurate precursor to your signals is academic since the trading vehicles are different<<
You may have a point there --- but on the other hand, if it is academic then it is neither here nor there whether your read of the market precedes the signals by two days or two hours.
>>so my read cannot be a more accurate precursor to your signals than half the time<<
I don't follow this line of reasoning -- but it really does not matter.
>>Would be better to focus on the magnitude of correctness rather than the frequency ... with all signs confirming.<<
That is a good idea -- if you are so inclined let us see whether the signals that my system generates are any more profitable when it coincides with your read of tape.
>>In the Hillman wager, I was inclined to be on your side. In the OJ wager, I am inclined to be on OJ's side. Besides, OJ is sharing his winnings with me <<
Well, my dear--if you are confident regarding this, the thing to do is to wager with me separately. Now not sure whether our wager should be baklava or something more tempting; any suggestions, luv??
>> ... so please do iron out the details.
Now that is the real challenge--getting OJ to focus long enough to iron all this out:) The good news is that since I am most probably relocating to the East Coast, in the next couple of months, I can personally collect my tasty cake!!
Hope you had a good weekend. I had some delicious Iranian food!! |
