Doug, I've been mainly following the SP500.
I've been a faithful follower of your RSI model, and as you know, it hasn't confirmed a reversal yet.
I don't know if you feel the ROC 13 has possibilities as being complementary to the RSI 13. However, it appears that the ROC 13 has not broken out from a downtrend, and that it also nees to establish a peak of 3 or so to break out of a small correction. It's at 0.47 now.
I think that sometimes the weekly data may clear up some of the background noise. In the short term weekly stochastics, the 2,1,2 and 3,1,2 are breaking out from a downtrendline, while the 13,8,8 is just crossing negative. The 8,3,5 and 7,3,10 have notched a couple of times trying to turn positive. The 3 week RSI broke the downtrend, but the 8-week has not; in fact it notched, or should I say "flinched" as it thought about crossing upward. That same "flinch" is found in the 4,3,2. The 3 week MLR/MA has not broken out, though it has headed up.
My conclusion is that the market has not broken the downtrend and that I don't want to enter a bunch of long positions just as we are about to head down the next leg of the downturn. I don't necessarily believe that the model is science, nor have I put a lot of money behind it. I have stuck with my long term positions have been content to sit by the sidelines and watch David J and all the others make tons of money on all their great picks<sigh>.
Faithfully, on the sidelines,
Ocote
PS, George R, I hope you hurry up and perfect that stairstep scan, because I'm wasting entirely too much time playing around with it.<GG> |
