BearShark:
I am looking at the triple declining summo pattern as a 45-50 trading day pattern. You have probably heard of the 55 calendar day
crash pattern where the crash day is 55 calendar days from the top,
which occurred in 1929 and 1987.
I am not looking for a crash here at all, but a day of capitulation with two or three limit down moves in the Spoo's.
In August-October 1992 the mac oscillator topped on July 30 and went down into August 24, 17 trading days. It then went up into
September 14, 14 trading days, and then down (hard) into October 5,
which took 15 trading days.
In February-April 1994 the mac oscillator topped on January 31 and
went down into February 24, 17 trading days. It then went up into
March 17, 15 trading days, and the down really hard into
April 4.
We now have a mac top (the tricky part this time around is choosing which particular mac top day to use) on April 2 and went down into April 27, 16 trading days. We should now make a mac top (not necessarily the Spx top) on the 14th trading day, May 15,
or the 15th trading day, May 18.
The Astrikos service I believe has a May 14 Bradley turning date,
Favors' probably has a May 15th Bradley date calculated ( I don't trade off the Bradley, but there it is).
One problem is the very oversold mac reading on April 27 at -271,
which suggests that was the bottom.
However, looking at the August-October 1987 summo pattern
the mac oscillator made a low on September 8 at -171. This low compared to the low earlier that year on April 14 at -198. We know what happened a month later.
My view is that the principle is the same; the readings on the mac grow more intense as there are more stocks traded.
As we get to the week of May 11-15 we'll have to try to pinpoint the actual top day using oscillators or whatever. If it unfolds this way.
At this point I'm guessing that put buying time (June's) will be on or near the close on expiration day. Barron's The Striking Price column did a piece a few years ago pointing out that the vast majority of expiration
weeks have a positive bias (9 or 10 of 12 expiration weeks).
Vitas
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