I'd be careful about using a forward P/E ... you may tend to
compare with market figures or other companies or your memories,
based on trailing P/E. At today's close, PRIA has a P/E of a
20 on trailing earnings, and an expected earnings growth based on the
estimates you just cited, of a bit over 25%. Once earnings estimates
start going down, it's not uncommon for it to continue.
I sold the rest of my PRIA at 35 1/2 today... thought there
might be a bounce when I quoted it this am, and indeed there
was. After more thought about the slowing growth of backlog,
rising costs, and news via INFRASTRUCTURE that management
mentioned pricing pressures from customers as a factor in
the dropping margins ... I decided to take some profits again.
I should note that INFRASTRUCTURE thought today's drop might be
a good opportunity for long-term investors. I'm overweighted in
tech still, trying to lighten up by taking profits, and I also
anticipate another tech panic within a few months; you can bet
I'll be looking at PRIA again if it drops. I'm certainly not
trying to influence anyone to sell, I'm absolutely not an
expert by any means... just airing my thoughts.
I've sold stock because of backlog worries before and been wrong,
and it could just be that orders in this sort of business tend
to be very chunky, and the low net new orders this quarter was
just bad luck. But based on experience, I don't want to own this
company at this price if it's about to start feeling the effects
of the semi slowdown.
Best to all,
Howard |
