Staying long.
I wish you luck Mark. I have no stake in VVUS, but I must say I disagree with the assertion that MUSE scripts will benefit from the success of Viagra.
In simple terms, here is how I think this plays out for VVUS:
Before Viagra, there are 10000 men suffering from ED. 100 of them seek treatment. 20 of them go with MUSE.
After Viagra, there are 10000 men suffering from ED. 9500 of them seek treatment. 9000 go with Viagra. 10 of the MUSE patients go with Viagra. None of the 500 men that didn't get Viagra to work want to go with MUSE, and they go back to what they were doing before. Namely, nothing.
So, in my opinion, despite the increase in the market place, MUSE will get less sales, because some MUSE users will leave to go with Viagra, and anyone that has entered the new ED marketplace has likely done so as a result of an easy to take pill. Barring sucess with that, they will use nothing else.
So far the script numbers back up my assertions. At some point they may support yours. At what point do you start to get worried if the numbers for MUSE aren't picking up?
-jsc |
