Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 155.15

+2.1%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (5252)	5/4/1998 3:17:00 PM
From: Steve Patterson	Read Replies (2) of 10921

I seem to recall Infrastructure being bullish on a majority of semis as of the exact August top (and even adding Speedfam to their model portfolio at $55, just after the secondary). I'm not sure I would use them as a contrarian indicator; the only thing I'm sure of is that the picture is less clear than either the hardcore bulls or bears think. I personally believe that Korea Inc., to get money, must export lots of chips (they lose money on most other things). Due to lack of cash they will not be as successful as they'd like, but not for lack of trying -- the alternative is to roll over and collapse entirely. How successful will they be? Perhaps it is to the advantage of shareholders in American semi-equips that they be less successful... in the short term this will mean trouble, but in the medium term, US and European manufacturers must fill the gap -- and their currencies, not being devalued, are more likely to buy US semi equipment, whereas the SE Asians will buy whatever they can locally, from other countries with devalued currency. It's a theory, anyway. I'm not sure if I believe it myself. Steve

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