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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (17325)5/4/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: Mr. Aloha  Read Replies (1) of 25960
 
If I had a nickle for every "new technology" etc...

All of this reminds me of a company I used to invest in. It was called GENUS (GGNS). I bought a few years ago when it was gaining attention, I sold during the tech sell-off in 1996.

GGNS' products include MeV ion implantation systems and chemical vapor deposition equipment. For the fiscal year ended 12/31/97, revenues increased 2% to $84.3 million. Net loss totalled $19.3 million, up from $9.2 million. Revenues reflect the Co's recovery from the slowdown in the DRAM market. Net loss reflects higher S/G/A expenses as a percentage of revenues.

This is a typical example of a young companies struggle with technology. You never know what the market will except. What we do know is lithography/DUV is the choosen manufacturing method.

Intel is switching to lower lines right now, preparing for chip manufacturing at the end of this year and in 1999. I don't expect any surprises about what technology or who the light source supplier is.

As an investor, we can choose to try and pick the right technology for the future or we can choose the technology of the present and jump on the future technologies when it actually shows results. Think about all those Cymer investors sitting there with no profits. Once the news of actual product implementation hits the street, there was ample time to buy.

I view it the same as buying drug stocks based on Phase I trial tests....hoping for the home run. Generally, this type of investing leads to an extremely unpredicatable return.

Aloha
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