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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?
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To: Shege Dambanza who wrote (1479)5/4/1998 4:32:00 PM
From: still learning  Read Replies (1) of 6974
 
Good points. (tho i still think you underestimate the vulnerability of those currently in the market. -- I'll bet you a ham sandwich that in 2 years there is at least one vendor no one thinks of as a "player" that is at least a contender. This is a classic, wide open market opportunity).

To your points:

-- gg overestimates what you can do with APIs
-- new entrants probably have already built their systems and are coming to market now. We don't have to assume that everyone's starting from scratch, do we? There have been at least 3-4 names thrown around here worth investigating. Look at the new Lehman report on Enterprise Telesoft. I's filled with profiles of public and private companies that might be interesting.
-- I don't underestimate the importance of SI and infrastructure -- anyone who makes a serious run for this market better have that. Can they build it from here? Depends on the entrant and theirt relationships.
-- Ditto for building a skilled programmer base. BTW: SEBL didn't buy SCOP's programmers, they bought its customer base under the assumption that switching costs are high (IMHO).

I'm not saying that SEBL, CLFY, VNTV are not going to prosper. But it *might* happen and it's just as likely that Lucent buys a small startup, or that some lesser-known company from the Lehman report makes big headway. TCSI? Interactive Intelligence? Chordiant? Or others not mentioned : Broadvision? Graham? Mosaix?

These are all examples of companies that have already built their systems that *might* get there. All I'm saying is let's not assign too much standing to existing players in a highly fluid market.

Take a look at the report by Brian Skiba. Got some interesting stuff in it.
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