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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: Edderd who wrote (7710)5/4/1998 5:58:00 PM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (5) of 23519
 
If anyone is surprised by the script data I only wonder where they have been for the last 6 months.

The Viagra scripts are staggering at 213,000 for it's second full week. I wish I knew how many of those scripts were written for men with true organic ED? If it is significant then I only see this as very good longer term news for Vivus. Vivuses best total IMS count was only 19,236 which was about it's 9th week on the market. By contrast that is less than 10% of Viagra's second full week count.

I think that the theory many of us have held that Viagra WILL help MUSE sales in the long haul is still very valid. If I were a MUSE patient I sure would hold off on refills until trying Viagra first yet the refill numbers still dont look too bad at 3,824 since the usual refill rate has run at 4,000-5,000 since last July.

The new script rate of 3,534 certainly is not a pleasant sight but this has been expected all along--no Dr. is going to start a patient on MUSE before Viagra unless he is on Nitro etc..

My gut feeling is that the total MUSE numbers will not decrease much more and the decrease is only going to last for another 2 to 3 weeks max. Remember as of now the new Vivus sales team is calling on GPs
to spread the word on MUSE--I think most GPs will give MUSE a crack if Viagra fails before sending the patient off to the urologist (unless they are too busy or don't feel comfortable instructing the ED patient on how to titrate and insert MUSE).

FWIW, I believe that we will still fill the gap by the end of this year and even sooner if the Rx numbers start increasing back to a total of 15,000+ by mid summer.

Standing erect as always,

VLAD

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