<Give me six months, and my upgrade system will be a Klamath. Give me two years, and it'll be a Merced.>
Merced will fail. VLIW is doomed to failure. A chip the size of a floppy disk with bugs as bad as MSFT software. That is the fate of MERCED. RISC and MP is still the future.
<Intel's a cyclical? You mean like a Ford or GM? Okay fine. But take a look at all those legacy UNIX junk servers that will be quickly replaced by NT. It's like looking out on the road, and everybody's driving a '67 Chevy.>
You shouldn't talk about things that you know nothing about. UNIX is ten times the OS of NT. NT is basically single-user, hardware-bound-gui junk. UNIX is a multi-user, Distributed GUI (X), highly scalable, open, mission-critical OS. You live in a fantasy world if you believe differently.
Lets talk about legacy for a second.
SHOCK #1) Microsoft software (all of it) is about to become legacy software. The generation of software now being developed is Java based (distributed object based). This software will run on Java NCs or PCs and will revolutionize the industry in thousands of ways. Because all current Microsoft software is a generation behind this model, all current Microsoft software will be "legacy" in less than one year.
SHOCK #2) NT is not ousting UNIX. Not at all. IS/IT managers consider the proposition that NT could oust UNIX as a joke of the first order. NT 4.0 is not even selling well. Fry's Electronics pulled it from their front shelf display and put it in back because it wasn't moving. They replaced it with Windows 3.1 for dummys (a better seller? You figure it out.)
SHOCK #3) The PC is going away. The NC is definitely going to devour PC sales in fortune 1000 companies (the biggest PC market). Cost of ownership is enough in itself, but there are many other reasons why this wave is starting.
SHOCK #4) Even in the legacy (chuckle..) software market, Microsoft is losing ground. Corel's office suite has outsold Microsoft Office for the last two quarters. Sales for this quarter indicate that the trend is not changing.
SHOCK #5) In the PC marketplace, W95 and WNT are about to experience an earthquake. The name of that earthquake? BE. Yes, BE (http://www.be.com). This is the next generation Mac O/S (Apple is in negotiations with these guys now). BE makes NT look like yesterdays garbage.
There are others.
Why is Microsoft frantic right now? Why are they reorganizing every other day? Why are they firing top management? Why? Why? Why?
They are scared. NT is not taking off like they planned. Netscape has not fallen to their give-away strategy. SUN has launched the greatest offensive Microsoft has ever encountered with Java and the JavaStation NC. All the savvy Silicon Valley companies smell Bill's blood and are circling like wolves.
We are seeing the last great rise of Microsoft. Soon they will plateau, ease downward and finally sink into powerful shadows and obsoletion like IBM. It is simply the way of things.
-Dan |
