I guess your premise that men who fail on Viagra will not even bother trying MUSE is where the whole Vivus argument rests. If your theory is correct then I say Vivus will perish.
Thank you for your thoughtful, reasoned reply. You are correct, I think this is the crux of the issue.
At this time I can only go by three things: my somewhat biased reasoning, the script data we have seen, and empirical evidence from my wife, who is a pharmacist. She says she has not filled a single MUSE script in 3 months, and will shortly be returning some of the stock she does have. She could be jumping the gun, but she believes in the coattail effect as much as I.
Everyone has their ideas. If I were impotent and failed on Viagra I would certainly at least give MUSE a try.
Agreed - this is the hope the VVUS longs are putting on the stock. However, if a pill doesn't work you are now talking about a bit more work, including having to be shown how to use the applicator. Many, many men die too young for fear of physicals (I have no source for this comment, but believe it to be true) and I think many will stop trying if the pill doesn't work. Stop trying, that is, until the next pill comes out.
Your assumption is that men are lazy or don't care too much about sex.
Not at all. They are afraid of pain.
My assumption is that men have been ashamed and have not even discussed their disorder with their doctor until the Viagra news made ED a socially acceptable problem.
I think this is certainly a valid assumption, and in the case of "treatment A" vs. "treatment B", all things being equal except the market frenzy associated with "treatment A" I think you are right. However, all things are not equal, and I think there is only a small core of men for whom MUSE would be an acceptable treatment. A core, by the way, who for the most part are already taking the drug. You will lose a good portion of these as they go to Viagra, and you may even add some men from the "new marketplace", but in the end I believe MUSE scripts will be no better, and possibly lower, than before Viagra.
If they really want sex and are willing to stick themselves with a needle then plan C will also be available.
Let my bias show through again: OUCH! I believe that these men have found ways around their problem to give pleasure to themselves and their partner. I think they will go back to what was working, rather than try the alternatives to Viagra.
I believe that Viagra's main sales will be as an erection enhancer for men who wish to prolong there ability to maintain an erection but who are not impotent.
As a PFE shareholder I certainly hope you are correct! If it would work for non-impotent men, and Pfizer can market, or get free publicity about, this "feature" then we have the world's first $40 billion/year drug. :-)
However, despite the rash of presumably non-impotent PFE shareholders who have been so kind as to take Viagra and report their improved results, the information I understand to be true says that Viagra does not improve an erection for men without ED. Most likely it's a placebo effect.
Why hasn't MUSE been marketed heavily to take advantage of the "new marketplace"? Obviously, because they need to get Viagra to simmer down a bit, and hell, Pfizer hasn't even begun promoting it yet. But I think the reason is that they need something to market against. MUSE isn't going to stand up against Viagra on its own, and so they need some significant evidence of failure in Viagra, and then market to that segment.
It remains an interesting story. I have both long and short-term money in PFE, and no position in VVUS as I have stated.
Good luck to you Vlad, if you are correct we shall both do well in this investment.
-jsc |
