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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: Richard Karpel who wrote (3126)5/5/1998 12:20:00 PM
From: Allen Benn  Read Replies (1) of 10309
 
>are you insinuating that WIND is going to be the next MSFT?

WIND is a different kind of company than Microsoft, so it can't be another MSFT. Was MSFT the next IBM in the mid-eighties?

If you are asking whether WIND will continue to dominate it's the embedded systems space, and whether that space will become important like the PC paradigm, then I think the answer may yes to both counts.

The point of my post was to draw a parallel between the kind of thinking that occurred in the eighties about the PC and what may be repeating itself today about I2O. Notice the identical conclusions about accidental outcomes, one about the PC viewed with the benefit of hindsight, and one about I2O viewed in the future with the benefit of hindsight. The language used to describe these accidents is exactly the same, and predicts the impossibility of repeating such an unlikely, accidental event.

Notice also the trend toward smaller IP elements and unit royalties, which accumulate to a larger whole by the relative sizes of the number of units.

WIND is not I2O, but I2O is WIND. I2O alone could provide WIND a dominance in future computing beyond Microsoft's current dominance and scope. At this stage it is certainly fanciful to suggest this will happen. Yet, 15 years from now, any debate about historical accidents can be settled concretely. The important future of IxWorks for WIND is no accident.

Allen
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