Mark - Re:"Your tireless attempts to assess the strengths and shortcomings of AMD..."
AMD has had first silicon on the K6 for several weeks now. A key milestone now is COMDEX.
IF AMD shows PUBLICLY a functional K6 system at COMDEX, I'd say hold the stock. IF a major PC manufacturer demonstrates a K6 with AMD - this would be a good indicator to BUY more. Delivering a good chip AND lining up customers are BOTH essential for AMD to begin growing their CPU business.
If they hold "private" & "selected" demos of the K6, they may have a K6 that wiggles but is not entirely functional. This would indicate that they are on the right track, but the train will be running late. They will probably need awhile ( 1 to 4 months) to completely debug and correct the chip - or speed it up.
If they show NOTHING at COMDEX - I'd guess they are in serious trouble with the K6 - either functionally or embarrassingly slow. This would be a clear signal to SELL - an indication that they are far from offering up a competitive chip.
Another variable to factor in here is Intel's offerings at Comdex. If KLAMATH chips are shown, especially in Customer's PCs (COMPAQ, DELL, and the usual bunch), then high performance systems of the future may be identified with Klamath inside, and not K6. PC manufacturers have limited engineering resources - and reduced product cycles. If they commit early to the Klamath, that leaves smaller companies to buy & sell the K6.Or, the K6 will be offered as a Pentium enhancer to give an end of life kicker to older systems (assuming that it is 100% plug compatible with a Pentium -avoiding any re-engineering of these older PCs.)
That may not be totally bad news for AMD. Selling several hundreds of thousands of these will add to their top & bottom line.
Finally, we need to know the die size of the K6 and the Klamath. If the K6 is greater by 25% or more, the K6 will be difficult to produce with any reasonable profit margins.
COMDEX begins Nov. 18, so I would look for all the info that I can get on the K6/AMD/COMDEX. With this info properly interpreted, then a decision should be made.
Paul |
