James O'Brien writes:
So a pundit is anyone who takes a point of view on a stock?
No. A pundit, in my view, is one who makes public predictions about the direction of a stock price. I guess one could say that anyone who says they own a stock is making a public "prediction" that they think the stock will go up. However, your's had definite parameters (PLA at 21 before DIS at 128), and when coupled with your very obvious, and increasingly personal, disdain for DIS, warranted categorization as a pundit call. I will be happy to use the word "seer", however, if you so prefer.
Just beware that anytime one of your picks goes down, that you would be vulnerable to heckling and being called a quack.
Don't try to associate simply buying (or even shorting) a stock with publicly predicting the price of a stock in a given (or in your case, relative) time period.
I have NEVER posted, and will NEVER post, a message to any board predicting a specific price movement for a specific time period.
But people who do need to be held accountable for their actions. When PLA approached your target, your sure weren't shy about proclaiming the "wisdom" of your prediction.
Unfortunately, your boast was ill timed. However, I saw no post by you stating as such, so rather than let it fade into the background like so many other "seers" like to have happen to their misses....I brought it out for the record, so that new readers can properly evaluate the value of your future statements regarding DIS.
It's the truth. It was your prediction. It was wrong.
Why so defensive?
And I've made about five other incorrect predictions. And the Denver Broncos lost 4 games last year and the Florida Marlins lost about 65 so they suck, I suppose.
Non sequitur.
Did the Broncos PREDICT that they would go undefeated?
Did the Marlins PREDICT that the would win every game?
Of course not.
But if they had, I assure you the lambasting that the sports media would have laid upon them following their first lost would have made my recap of your prediction look petty by comparison.
Go read Peter Lynch's books, he'll tell you about all the mistakes he made.
Exactly how many times did Peter Lynch post to a message board that company XYZ's stock will hit 30 before company ABC's stock hits 123?
Answer: Never! Because he knows that NO ONE can predict short term price movements. And to publicly declare a prediction such as that would be foolish, and he would expect to be ridiculed if such a prediction failed to come about.
Find something else to do at 1 in the morning.
All of my posts occur FAR earlier than 1 in the morning.
I live in the western United States, the post times that SI reports are EDT.
Obviously you aren't as strident with anyone in real life because you are aware of the consequences.
Obviously?
Have we met?
No. You don't know the first thing about me.
So, the best thing to do is leave behind the personal stuff, and stick to the subject.
your predictions will be wrong someday....
I NEVER post predictions. NEVER have. NEVER will.
.....and anyone on this board who takes the point of view to trash someone with a contrary point of view who guessed wrong is living in a glass house.
We're not talking about "points of view". We're talking about predictions. You made one. You sure wanted the credit when you posted that it was close to being right. However, now that it's gone terribly wrong, you want to hide behind the "well, it happens to everybody" defense.
Sorry. It doesn't happen to everybody. Everybody doesn't make predictions. If you want a prediction to speak to the depth of your knowledge on a subject when you are right, then you have do accept that it speaks to your lack of knowledge when you are wrong.
Instead, you simply say, "well, I was wrong....but it's still overvalued". Which is no different that saying "well, I was wrong, but I'm still right".
If you really are an "option trader", something Peter Lynch has never done, you will learn soon enough that there are two directions that the market can go, and that is not bearishness, that is reality.
Option trading for me is really just a recreation, mostly done on paper. However, when I've traded with real money, my most successful ones have been Put contracts. So, yes, I am well aware the market moves in both directions.
There is nothing wrong with being bearish on a stock. There are many stocks to be bearish about. And there is nothing wrong with shorting a stock.
However, if you come out and make a prediction on one of the boards I monitor, and it bombs, don't expect it to just fade away in to the sunset.....I'm gonna hold you accountable. I don't understand why you would take such offense to it? After all, it's just the truth.
You're not looking very far if you think shorting Disney is the worst prediction you've seen. Check out the TA thread, or what has happened to the AOL or Amazon shorters, or the Oxford Health longs.
I only have time to monitor the boards of stock in which I have an interest. Sorry. |
