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Biotech / Medical : Aurora Biosciences (ABSC)
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To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (89)5/5/1998 4:54:00 PM
From: Boyce Burge   of 359
 
Baird, you have my sympathies. I was a little early on absc, but I think it will turn out alright. Let me illustrate.

Lets assume i\that INCY and ABSC are similar pick and shovel biotech companies.... I've taken a look at INCY's chart during the first year it was public (Oct 93-Oct 94). On a split adj. basis it came public at 5, ran up to 7, and then over the next few months moved between 3 and 7 several times... to bottom at 3 in Oct 94... from then on, it went up 80%/year, and the trend line is intact still !!(I look for 66 by year end). So in retrospect perhaps we should have waited 12 months, and let the VCs exit noisly before buying in.

My feeling is that ABSC could follow this same kinetics as INCY, but even if everything goes well it may be year's end before we see an uptrend, and we could see 8/sh before then. I sold half at 10, and will think about getting back in if it breaks 12 on good news.

Good luck, Boyce
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