Shege, I agree that SEBL must provide at least a transition plan for current SCOP customers. As implementation guys, I think that perhaps we loose a bigger perspective from this kind of merger.
I think that we agree that a smooth technical migration of a SCOP customer to a "new and improved" SEBL product is impossible. I have a lot of respect for SEBL's developers, but I cannot fathom a set of tools that will take 500 highly customized SCOP installs and seamlessly upgrade them to an entirely different product. Inconceivable. Can't be done.
So, moving forward in the near-term, SEBL has three sets of customers:
* Existing SEBL installs. These guys have it easy (well, as easy as it gets). As Siebel 99, Siebel 2000, etc. come out, robust upgrade tools will be provided. SEBL's product offerings become much richer as it expands to cover SCOP functionality (Key assumption - SCOP's *functionality* is added by building it into the core SEBL product set).
* Existing SCOP installs. I think these guys will be given two paths: 1. move to the "new Siebel" (some tools and guidance given, but this is basically a re-implementation), or 2. stay on current SCOP product set. I think that SEBL will be forced to offer #2 because #1 will prove to be unattainable for much of the current SCOP user base. At future SEBL user conferences, you'll see special SCOP tracks and special SCOP enhancement releases. These guys will moan and complain that the core SEBL guys get all of the attention, but 'so what'. That's life.
* Potential New SCOP Customers. Companies currently evaluating a SCOP purchase must surely be in a holding pattern until SEBL commits to an overall direction. Until SEBL can demo SCOP functions in the SEBL product set (Kevin Rose estimated 3 months which is very quick), then these guys are unlikely to make a purchase decision. I would expect that this delay may tangibly affect SEBL's Q2 revenue (but then again, maybe not).
...bigger margins come from selling into the installed base of customers.
Nah. The market is growing too much for this to be the case. Current customers do offer new revenue opportunities, but it should pale in comparison to the soon-to-be customers. |
