JP,
Have you forgotten the now $19 Billion per month that is being pumped into the market from the 401k plans by working people that only look at their portfolios quarterly, and it takes 2 weeks to make any changes? The fact that the market has never experienced 3 consecutive years of 20% growth doesn't mean that it can't happen. The market has never felt the kind of investment that is now occurring either.
With the technology that 'we' have right at our finger tips, and the ability to do 'online trading' and the advent of the 'day traders', those that take the time, and work the problem using the information that we have at hand, including all of the fine information here on the DELL thread, from both the BEARS, BULLS and VISITORS, we are relatively few with kind of time, should be able to do quite well, while the other 'poor investors' are waiting to get through to their brokers, a week or so late! I think that there are a number of people here that have done pretty well, just here in the hi tech area.
The US will have another BEAR market and a recession, but that will be followed by a BULL market and an expansion. So what's the point, other than restating the obvious? All of us are trying to figure out when it will happen, and looking for the indications that it is occurring or about to occur. When we realize that it is 'upon' us, the investors will take what they consider to be appropriate actions, whether it is options or cash.
In DELLs case there seems to be a worldwide expansion that will make DELL a 'Global' company, and earnings will be moderated 'up' or 'down' depending on how that world market responds. IMHO, DELL is providing the ability of the world to acquire powerful computing systems at a reasonable cost. I don't see that as a bad thing. Their production of these computers advances the technology by selling the latest offers from Microsoft and Intel (and others) providing jobs in assembly and R&D internally, and in INTC and MSFT (and others). I don't see that as a bad thing. As more computers are sold and the world becomes one large community, maybe the world society will be able to get along without fighting. I don't see that as a bad thing.
If and when the economy fails, as it may, the computer may turn out to be the 'glue' that holds society together, and therefore the continued production of computers will be considered as a necessity. After all, once the initial price is paid, the continual use is relatively cheap when compared to almost any thing else. (About $.02 per hour + telephone costs)
My question really comes down to why the BEARS spend all of their time waiting for the 'crash' instead of investing in the 'growth'? I am neither a BULL or a BEAR. I think of myself as an 'INVESTOR' who is trying to enhance his financial position. Personally I feel more at ease in a BULL market, and usually go to CASH during a BEAR market even though I know that money can be made going down. Actually I am led to believe that BONDS do very well, but I cannot report that from personal experience.
Can't you be patient so long that you miss the real opportunities?
Just my thoughts,
Ken |
