Igor,
To be honest, you've got a lot of homework to do.
Every one of the regulars on this thread has put
in a whole lot of work to figure things out. In
my case, massive amounts of reading. And I don't
feel nearly as informed about lots of COMS products
as I should. My goal is to know as much as
most of the 'Ghost' veterans, by the end
of 1998<g>. (Hopefully they will critique some of
this rambling...) By that time, I'll be semi-retired from
the COMS profits, and I'll have lots of time to read
more about COMS details. <gg>
I'll go through your questions quick-like, and ask
me about them some more later...
(By the way, if the more knowledgeable readers can
correct me, by all means feel free - I got lots
to learn...)
>>Prices of networking equipment is dropping and all vendors are being hit with shrinking margins. This trend will continue.)<<
This isn't necessarily a bad thing. Lots of company's do great
with lower profit margins than Cisco <g>. Plus COMS has lots
of higher end products under its belt. Also, they're a very
efficient manufacturer, and if Asia gets profitable again,
I'll be one rich dude <g>. Plus, they'll have very good
market share, due to lots of things such as better price
and quality...
>>The "Convergence" of voice, video, and data (as Eric put it) may mean 3com to merge, buy, or to be bought by another company.
Is'nt 3com too big to be acquired? I would not be very happy even if somebody paid $50 for my shares. Is 3COM ready for another buyout or merger after the USR experience?<<
COMS is best positioned for VOIP. There was a post on this a few
weeks ago - I still need to read it. They're the only ones after
Cisco to consider the end-to-end solutions. This is very
hard for any company to do, and one of the things I especially
like about COMS is that they thought about this a whiles
back. IMO, COMS extends
this concept more fully & better because it will be dealing
with the SME (small & medium, enterprise; new buzz word from H&Q conf.), Not just the fortune 500 companies like Cisco. Don't
get me wrong - I'm long CISCO - but COMS has lots of great stuff
also.
Yes, they're too big to be acquired by most. But you never know.
Have you heard of the recent Bank mergers. IBM, AT&T, ...
wouldn't have to much trouble absorbing them - not that it's
gonna happen.
Some people around here would think $50 for their shares of COMS
IS GREAT!! 50/32.5 == 54% profit. Of course, I'm going
for way more <g>. I expect major resistence when we get to
50's. (All those COMS holders who gave up many months ago,
will be so happy to break even <gg>. Smart guys (and those
that love pain, or just don't know the value of a buck
just buy more when it gets lower. <gg>)
Right now, 3COM is neither ready for a big merger or
interested IMO. I figure, maybe when they get their
stock price up, they may want to buy new technology - cheap.
But, they generally like to build in-house if possible - which
I think is good.
>>3) Too many data networking players and too many good products
Cisco, Bay, Cabletron, Fore, IBM, Digital, Xylan, HP, Madge,
Intel)<<
Good is relative; quality wise - COMs has most of these beat, on
most products. price-wise/market-share wise - COMS has most of
these beat... COMS IS A TOP-TIER COMPANY, you need to know
who the 2nd-tier companies are...
By the way, you didn't mention ASCEND, NN, NT, other smaller
modem makers, COMPAQ. Not that COMS takes any of these too
seriously...for various reason, such as different product
spaces...
>>4) Can Eric transform this company to end to end solution and mega size company in the consolidation phase of the industry?
I believe he can, and so far he's doing it. He also has a
good track record with these kind of transition/crisis handling
episodes. He's pretty well respected by all Major Network
CEO's. His style isn't flashy. He's low-key, but knows
what to focus on. I heard he can break your chops if he
has too (seems like a major qualification to be CEO).
End-to-solutions?; Eric B. was one of the early planners, in
this area.
By the way, ANYBODY WHO'S READ THIS FAR. What are some of
Eric B's weaknesses?? - besides letting COMS stock price
drop <gg>
Joe
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