Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: RWS who wrote (17975)	5/5/1998 9:01:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Rws; I take it your talking of index options, while I have looked at a few of them I have never played any..the ones I looked at just seemed to have to much premium, and were strongly flavored to make the specialest rich. Futures I thought of but I know that game favors the big betters, and the little guy ( like myself ) can get crushed messing with them. Some people just don't seem to understand the rules that apply to a no limit poker hand goes beyond just having good cards. The big fellers are hedged in such a way ( and they can afford it ) that they get a spread , then you have the specialist with his spread then the commissions. The sum of the game says the net returns to the little people is always less than is put up. In effect it's only real purpose is to insure against losses..and insurance of any kind cost money. To gamble in options means you not only have to be smarter than the average person playing..( why so many of us think we are is a dichotomy ) but you have to be a lot smarter in order to over come the nut ( overhead of the game ). My uncle was a bookie and I ran numbers as a kid..I know there is no way to beat these systems consitantly and for one to make an ongoing profit one has to be the person who runs the system and collets the spreads. ------------------------------------ I do play a few options on indiviulal stocks..the rules hold the same..and it's not a way to riches. I posted before that the only way to win in options over time is to understand the nature of the gamblers that play them. Picking the right stock at the right time is important..but picking the option that will let you make enough to offset the ones you lose is a trick..and it's rather a ruthless one to, as here you must know how to, and be willing to actually exploit the pain of others. This does not troble me as I'm sure they would do it to me with glee. ------------------------- BTW Now shorting something like the SPY is not so risky..but I never short an individual stock without cover..and I've been around enough to know that if you run into some one with a primary focas on shorting you have a hyptser that don't have the slightest idea of the rules of gambling. And they will almost never admitt how much they lose. So look out for them kind. I do more bottom fishing than anything else and that can be tough. The APM bears are giving me a fit right now..but I think I'm just an inch away from skinning a few of them. As if my experance is right they just got greedy and walked into a bear trap. AS did the shorts on crus late today.. -------------------- Well all that to say if your into index options your over my head I decided some time ago that game was to rich for me, and canceled my investigation of it. ( the nut was just to big ) If your in them for insurance it can make sence. Jim

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next