Risk-averse, you are dead on! I too was born and raised on one of the islands in the Malay Archipelago. Communication technology is hot and it's more than just cause it's a fad or the thing to do. It's hot because it's a NECESSITY! Sure a lot of SE Asian govts do engage in projects that may be white elephants, but the Palapa satellites are a very necessary thing. In the case of Indonesia itself, there's a couple hundred million people spread out over 13000 (??) islands.For the country to develop and raise the standard of living, it needs to have better infrastructure and that's the name of the game.
So Senor Escobar, if you want to ignore all the other deals all around the world that JC has signed and focus in on Indonesia, I'll be happy to give you more insights into the country, in addition to what several on the thread has said.Indonesia is a very fragmented society - the people there can be divided into many, many different groups: Javanese, Achehnese, Sulawesian, Dayaks in Kalimantan, etc etc, not to mention a dwindling timorese population. Scottoo can attest to the diversity perhaps. It is one single country probably because this is a legacy of the colonialism rampart throughtout the world in the last 500 years. So the political leaders have realized all along that they need to bring the disparate groups together more but it has been difficult not only for the cultural divide but also the physical and geographical aspects of the country - hence the need for CHEAP communication.
The political situation will continue to be unstable - no doubt about that. But at this point, the opposition is really fragmented and the students are probably unable to do much in the near term. The real powerplay will be in the hands of the military. And they will be unlikely to let things get out of hand-trust me that they will be even less likely to think twice about bringing on the tanks vis-a-vis the Tiananmen situation in 89, as much as i detest seeing that happen, it is likely that will happen. Look at what they did to the East Timurese in full view of western journalists a couple of years ago. But like all things, this will sort itself out at some point. In the meantime, phone calls still have to be made.
Turning to the economy, it is in dire straits due to the devaluation of the rupiah. It is precisely though at this point that they need foreign money coming in and with the rupiah being so low,JC probably got the company at firesale prices. What are the chances of the IMF not extending them any more loans? Some chance, but my guess is that IMF won't dare take a chance. Suharto knows it and thats why he dinked around with them earlier when he wasn't entirely happy with their package. He knows that he sits on top of the 4th largest population in the world and he controls one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. He knows that the western governments are watching and they wouldn't like to see the country blow up and pressure would be applied to the IMF and other lending agencies. The rest of SE Asian do not like a unstable Indonesia either (ask the Malaysians aboutthe problems they had with the illegal immigrants coming over) and would either apply pressure to western govts and would probably do what they can to keep the lid from blowing off. And so Indonesia too will recover economically at some point.And you know what? This is probably a good time to go into that market. Look at Thailand after the IMF bailout, if you had invested in the Bangkok stock exchange since the beginning of the year, you would be up approx 15% so far. Gosh, if I wasn't so vested in DGVI, I would put some money there myself!
So Senor Escobar, hope this is enough for you to digest. If you're still hungry after this, I can dish up some more. I have a feeling though the rest of the thread wouldn't like you to do that cuz than they would have to put up with another rambling post from me <VBG>!
Hope we have provided you with enough information to make a sound judgement. Adios! |
