Kelly: .....<SPECULATION>....
I haven't heard much talk about USRX buying a xDSL company, but i've heard about CSCO. Here are some of 'My thoughts" which i emailed to some posters on these thread 1-2 months ago. I feel this is SPECULATION on my part and i've tried to state this when ever i posted anything regarding this.
"I just had a meeting with Cisco. It was an initial meeting for us and a high level overview of CISCO. I'am sure your aware of CISCO and the dominance they have in the Router market. They strongly feel in buying companies out, in areas where they aren't technically strong. When they go into a business (ex) Remote Access, they want to be the number 1 or 2 players in that market, or they will not get into the business.
Cisco is now made up of five different business units. Routings, Lan Switching, Remote Access, Interworks (SNA to LAN connectivity), and Internet (Inter/Intra) (ex) Firewall products. Now for the interesting stuff.....
We all knew Cisco would buy an xDSL company months ago... and the question is "which one"? On the SI threads a few weeks ago, this topic did come up. Most people felt that a Cisco merger with AMTX would not be a good thing. I don't agree with this. Lets "ASSUME" Cisco will go with a DMT company....why... because of the Telebit buy out 2-3 months ago. Telebit claims to have certain patents on the Standard DTM technology and merger with a CAP company, would not fit well with the Telebit buy out.... So i'am "ASSUMING" that it will be a DMT company.
To me the most logically pick would be AMTX.... AMTX claims to have certain patents on standard DMT, and by purchasing AMTX... Cisco would then own all/most-of the patents on Standard DMT. I'am not an expert in this day-to-day market swings... but AMTX is staying in that 22-25 range for a while... most other xDSL companies have within the last 2 weeks gone down... WSTL now ~25 from ~46, AWRE now ~13 from ~17-18, PAIR now ~63-70 from ~90. I'm just curious if a leak from Cisco is supporting the current AMTX levels??
Now... lets "ASSUME" its going to be "AWARE"... why... its cheap?... DWMT??... other products they have. No.. this last reason is why Cisco will not buy AWARE or WSTL. They aren't interested in anything but xDSL. Why buy a WSTL that may have other divisions ex (ISDN) products that Cisco presently has a market lead in today. They want to buy a pure xDSL company. If Cisco does buy AWRE... I will not feel very good holding my AMTX stock. Cisco is a great company that upto now hasn't made a mistake on purchasing companies. When Cisco gets into this market they will be the number 1 or 2 player again. At this point, i feel AMTX will have a tuff go at it in the xDSL market.... and eventually will have to merge with some other large player.... I would like to see Cisco.
Now... other pure xDSL company that use DMT... ORCTF, Pulsecom, we can talk about these latter." |
