Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 153.97

+1.3%

10:04 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Ian@SI who wrote (5295)	5/6/1998 1:39:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) of 10921

Bingo! That's exactly why I am not bullish on the industry n/t. AMAT's admission of "scrambling" suggests just how severe this is going to be. In talking to some industry-in-the-know people in the chip industry over the last couple of days their take is that Asia's effects on the semi-equips are not yet fully apparent and things will get worse before they get better. This has been exactly my take since Jan-Feb when I began to see the Koreans say no mas, Japan going into a serious oops and the PC industry, which has been bludgeoned by evaporating profis, sucking wind. However shorter term I still feel, as mentioned before, that much of the price support for the semi-equips is based on a whim and a prayer. Though I doubt 0% for 1999 (just because it seems so draconian), who knows - stranger things have happened before. Though, longer term all should be well, n/t the blood-letting in this industry continues to be staunched by some expectations that I think are quite unrealistic at this point. When those expecatations turn into reality (and dark reality) then the blood will start flowing, then the volume (after a few months) will dry in the stocks, and then will be the time to katie-bar-the-door dump 50% of one's assets into the sector. But I might be wrong and may very well be left at the station dangling my pot of dimes, quarters, nickels and pennies watching while you guys zip away into the distance.... Hopefully not... My rough guess at this point is that summer will be abysmal for the industry and if I'm lucky some of the wind will be knocked out of these high expectations by July-August and the prices will be down to ridiculous levels and everyone will be talking about the industry coming to an end and we'll see headlines promoting the same etc etc. (actually it might happen much later - but the July-August time frame is a reasonable guess for the initial fear thing to start.). Shane. (thanks for the articles)

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next