Someone else thats gone blind.. TA-Elliott Wave and Gann analysis TAOTN
Haven't posted here for a month or so--got tired of being ridiculed on correct TA projections and no time to wade through hundreds of posts daily--most saying the same old things. Must be feeling masochistic tonight--the Elliott waves look so interesting I'll pass them on in spite of those experts that say no Ta is valid on a ranging stock. You might want to read my previous posts re EW and Gann analysis: 2958, 2987, and 3464. The only mistake I feel I made was selecting the previous wave 5 as starting point instead of customary wave 2 high when figuring Gann support/resistance. Starting with the wave 2 high of last Oct 21st, the projected low of 7 5/8 was exact.
The Elliott wave presently looks like it MAY have formed a wave 1 high on 4/24, and was followed by the typical sharp correction of a wave 2. IF the wave 2 low DOES TURN OUT TO BE yesterdays low, and IF a wave 3 is starting now, there is a 75% probability of a wave 3 going to between 1.62 and 2.62X the wave 1 height---which is to between 24.9 and 31.6 The GET software IS NOT labeling these as wave 1 and 2--it will only do so IF the previous wave 4 high of 15.2 is broken--so what I'm doing is projecting what will happen ONLY IF VVUS BREAKS 15.2 The EW chart looks so compelling that I think this is a good possibility, but realize trying to outguess or forecast this GET software is risky.
The present Gann resistance is at 13 1/16. This declining line is precisely where VVUS turned back on 4/24 at 14 1/4---so at least expect VVUS to stall here. If it does push through 13 1/16, then the next resistance is a price resistance at 15 1/4--this is NOT a Gann resistance point. Typically, if this is to be a start of wave 3, there would often be a gap up either tomorrow or Thursday. In a nutshell, IF VVUS strongly penetrates the low 13's soon, I would not arbitrarily sell, and if it penetrates 15 1/4--hang on. Now watch this sucker collapse tomorrow<g> |
