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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3382)5/6/1998 8:00:00 AM
From: tom  Read Replies (4) of 9980
 
Interesting to see that the Indo Rupiah has broken out of its trading range dropping to 8850 from 8000 IDR/$. TLK is now trading at $6.775 in London. I am comforted a bit by the fact that the other regionals still seem pretty firm under the circumstances (Thai Baht still at 38.8) although the forward markets are starting to weaken significantly.

If the other regional currencies fail to hold their ground and/or if the Yen takes another tumble (always a good default bet) then I think that the Asian stock markets will be hit hard. There are many hedge funds lined up to take a crack at the Ringgit as they reckon there are huge policy inconsistencies there (ie will they raise interest rates to defend the currency?). I don't know if this will knock the Sing Dollar and the Aussie dollar as they are used by hedge funds as proxies for shorting a basket of Asian currencies.

None of the equity markets are cheap even though they are a long way off their highs and I think a bit of currency volatility (and perhaps a revolution in Indonesia) will knock out the remaining stale bulls.

Not at the bottom yet...
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