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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (45)	5/6/1998 9:52:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Chip, I agree that larger currency blocks will have a stabilizing influence. Asia will be a tough nut however. The Japanese economy and the yen would dominate the other currencies and given recent history it would be difficult to see how the other Asians would be willing to accept this. I am not a big fan of the IMF. Their cures are often worse than the illness. The problem is that big governments feel more comfortable dealing with a big agency like the IMF and can distance themselves from having to deliver austerity messages. It is not the US, Japan etc telling Indonesia to cut living standards, it some faceless, stateless bureaucrat. Frankly I would prefer giving the market a freer hand in these situations and reducing the IMF to a supervisory and regulatory role. There is a large need for that. Take Indonesia. I believe a currency board would work for Indonesia but I don't trust their government to enforce it. The IMF could be useful in monitoring compliance. Henry

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