Well, it's quite possible that S. will emerge from his lair to attempt to savage with swearing and name-calling anyone who disagrees or even attempts objectivity. But if it happens, so be it. The guy has made me so much money that I'd have to be an awful ingrate to snap back.
Anyway, here are some thoughts about CCSI from someone who tries to make money in stocks from the short to intermediate term:
1. The arguments of the several bears on the other board have really served the cause of the longs: foolish ad hominum attacks on the CEO, gross misstatements of trivial facts, accusations that this non-earnings development company is actually a non-earnings development company, ignoring the fact that the market is regularly based on current perceptions of future perceptions, etc. Who but odd-lot novices would would find this weak-tea attack credible?
2. S. has been a driving force with this stock, but he's undermined his credibility with just-around-the-corner cries so often that his support is probably discounted now, even among true believers. He's sincere, but his belief is so untempered that objectivity is sacrificed.
3. As with most message boards, the purpose of posts is not to cooly assess an investment with an eye to making money but for posters to assure each other that they've done the right thing and that they haven't made a mistake. While these two motivations overlap, there are some real psychological differences, fear of admitting to error being a powerful goad.
4. Re the stock per se: It's been a really good trading vehicle, and I sold when it hit 17 on Monday, figuring that it'll just drift down again for another possible buy. (This has worked for me several times.)
There's only one more chunk of big news remaining, and that's the partnership. And that's the news that's been awaited since the stock was much lower. This leads me to worry that the distribution deal may already be factored in to the price. When it's eventually announced, the stock will probably pop some, but there could be a quick onslaught of selling into it. If so, the next question relates to recovery. Considering the difficulties so many companies with nifty devices have faced, from manufacturing to profitable marketing, CCSI stock may be a buy only for long-term speculators. The next question is whether there'll be enough buyers to outbid the sellers who don't want to wait around long term. Of course, shorts buying back could be a help here, but shorts tend to hold more tenaciously than a lot of longs on the other board will give them credit for.
Enough for now. |
