JP,
REALLY GOOD POINTS! However - consider this -
>> Nothing ever changes but the date and the weather. <<
When I started investing, 100 million was a really big day - not any more! You had to go to a broker to trade stocks - not any more! You paid a 'ton' in commissions - not any more! Your 'broker' was the 'expert' that you relied on for stock information - not any more! The market seemed to follow a 'set of rules' based on p/e or valuation or whatever that was thought to be predictive of the market - not any more!
Today, it takes 'quickness' and that 'gut' reaction, along with the 'online' instant trading ability to make money. V made $5K this morning on a 'day trade' - tough to do in 'yesteryear'. If the little guy is right there, right now, his trade will go at the same time that the preferential trade will go, if place at the same time. In times past, the 'big money' drove the market, and the 'little guy' got the crumbs, and big commissions to go with them!
>> In time, an event will change all of this. Since the dawn of time, the event has always occured. <<
It still comes down to timing! My father, a conservative from way back and I mean through the depression, has always had me preparing for the ultimately 'failure' of the economy. I was married for 25 years before my wife passed away, and that eventuality never occurred. How different our lives might have been had we taken less of our resource for 'doom preparation' and spent it on 'living'! My dad has GOLD, some that he bought at $700 per ounce, but he won't sell because the economy will fail! He is 87, smoked 40 years, and has emphazima. He may well fail before the economy!
I guess that I am agreeing with you. "There will be another ICE AGE, or the earth will be struck with a Meteor!" So - prepare for THAT! Where do you stop?
You have to remember that History predicts NOTHING, it only REPORTS events of the past. We are making HISTORY NOW which will be reported on the evening news.
Why shouldn't optimism be high? Low un-employment, stable economy, and whether we like it or not, the FED might have finally figured it out. The world is becoming one large economy.
As for the foreign money fleeing, it is possible, but it is also possible that we still would have the best economy in the world.
As for the MF money, until quite recently (in years) there was not the kind of monthly influx of new money each month. This is brought about by the realization that Social Security will probably fail in the foreseeable future, and individuals are taking more responsibility for their long term goals. I don't think that this attitude will change much, and given the young age, people will feel that they will live through a depression, and they probably will, and if they keep investing, they will be the rich ones when they get to retirement.
The weathering of the storm comments, while true, also may mean that you spend your time and available resources for an eventuality that doesn't occur in your lifetime!
Regards,
Ken |
