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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (18299)5/6/1998 6:45:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (2) of 50167
 
OJ-- They will get what they want, I would assume that 900-980 consolidation action needs to be repeated where intraday they use to get as low as 985 or even a single close below 985 -- market consolidation between the old highs and new highs is valid until next few months. A good number on hourly earnings will take us to retest 1130 but a ugly number will hit that 1085 and possibly might take it out as this will raise new issues with 19th FOMC meeting and our markets will be wobbly.Hourly earnings will be critcal and if they come above market expectations of .4 we will see some extreme volatality.

I will like to see how 1845 point holds on composite. It is a decisive point and based on this action I will think I will look at a fall to 1799 which should take SPM to as low as 1060.

I will expect ASEA to hold HSI 10200 and Nikkei 16250 level tonight. Yen as I have written earlier is heading for weakness and even BOJ bigtime selling is not going to help Yen.

I am looking at $/Mark also-- continued weakness below 1.7720 would mean some additional pressures on equity markets.AG and guys are trying to stop asset inflation getting out of hand and I think that they are right with so much of paper wealth being created the consumer confidence is at sky high even with a high real rates we see no let up in spending, they would like to stop this runaway train and let earning momentum justify its next move up.

I see Bundesbank rate hike as one big problem for global markets but Friday good number can allay inflationary fears. I will like to continue to 1093 level and will certainly devise a strategy to get out of 1/2 of my puts if 1115 is taken out on SPM. I will go in number on Friday protected with remaining of 1/2 of my puts intact.
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