Hi Alomex,
Fred Anderson said Apple will come in below last October's revenue figure, but I think with Apple's fine new products and the "taint of death" wearing off due to profitable quarters, we can get close. Especially with a late shipment of iMacs. I'm not sure I'm even counting on 200,000 iMacs, as that would make the model the fastest selling Mac ever, better than the 133,000 G3s in Q1. Rather, I'm counting on strong education sales, better than usual consistency from the desktop and laptop lines, a boost from the iMacs, and perhaps some OS sales.
Let's see what's said on that front Monday. Rhapsody has been underway for well over a year now, I want to see a product soon, even if it is just the Intel version! I also want more server revenue. It's not outrageous to speculate that $1.7 B in revenues, and 23% margin are possible.
As an aside, with the early availability of the new PBs, European store, Education store, potential uptick in education sales due to grant money, etc., I'm now looking for $1.5 B in revenue this quarter.
Joe Six-Pack problem is a concern, but I think the advertising campaign is working on the G3 vs Pentium front. Of course, where Joe is going to find the Macs if he doesn't have a CompUSA or Apple specialist nearby is another question.
As I've said, the installed base is the key for Apple. Maybe 10% of the iMacs will go to new buyers, or former Mac buyers who went pc last time. The iMac still won't sell much to Joe Six-Pack since I think you need a $500 device for that.
Jobs/Apple forecasting knows this and he mentioned it today: the easiest sales growth is from the people who bought millions of Macs in 1992-1995. Then we have the more professional users who bought clones in 1996. The mac-os market share of the computer industry was almost 8% as I recall. These people, including myself, are now due for G3s.
I don't know what the margin is on the iMac. I saw one post claiming that Compaq had 20% margins on its $1000 pcs though they probably rarely get that due to price wars, etc. But as you know, the iMac is perfect for helping Apple grow market share and revenue.
I agree with you, Jon, X-Ray, and others--33.6 is a joke. But this new Apple is executing and listening to customers, and should have the 56k by Aug. or at least by X-Mas.
You gonna buy 100 shares tomorrow? For laughs?
Marc |
