gbull, that degree of analysis is more dificult since TRIBY is so small, and reports so little. I'm not an SEC legal specialist
so I cannot speak into the letter of the law, but TRIBY sure falls short in meeting the spirit. The QTR and even annual releases have so little substantitive detail. They do not even show expenses other than R&D. You can't look at expense trends, such as whether SG&A are decreasing as a % of revenue, because TRIBY won't disclose.
And in this case, you can't calculate a viable return on equity (at least once that makes sense from a US perspective due to their accounting rules. Shareholders equite plummated last time they bothered to report it compared to the previous year, while total assets soared. Calculating ROE would give a meaningless #.
Using year end figures, I come up with come up with a profit margin of .064 (not too bad for a recently profitible company, but not too good for a company with a PE > 30) and a pathetic ROA of .016.
When I give examples, I'm doing stunts like searching a database for a best case comparison. My recent exam,ples come for companies I own or are researching. Look at recent qtr reports for VICL, ISIP, PTIX, EQNX, ADIC. BIG difference in disclusure. Real big difference when you look at 10k's, such as EQNX.
Other glimpses of value have to be infered from comparisons. VectorVest specializes in value analysis.
vectorvest.com
Look at their computed value vs current price, relative value, and earnings yield for TRIBY. Now do the same for TBAC, PTIX and EQNX.
Again, big difference. CSCO is similar in that it is overvalued by Vectorvest standards, but still a relative value(hint, if you want to do more than 3, set your browser to allert you before accepting a "cookie", than say cancel when prompted to accept). TRIBY comes out with a better than average relative value since at this point in the bull run, most stocks are overvalued.
Now look at wsrn.com
Look at items such as PM & P/Sales combined, ROA< ROE, Current ratio, Debt/equity. Check out PTIX, EQNX, COMS and TBAC. Look at EPS trends
(Baseline would be much more illustrative for EPS, but I can't give you a free link) Then look at a price chart for the last year. Pretty good returns.
No I'm not going to make predictions for next week. But I'll lay my analysis on the line. On January 1, 1999, at least two of EQNX, PTIX and TBAC will have better returns than TRIBY (base it on the close of today with a price 1/2 way between the bid and ask)
Development stage Biotechs. Two of ISIP, LGND and VICL will have better results by the end of the year than TRIBY.
Somebody posted today TRIBY would hit .03 EPS by third qtr. Only concervable way possible (barring a debt based acquisition of a company with positive cash flow and little absorbtion costs) is an HIV FDA approval quick, in time for meaningfull sales, and good immediate parket penetration. I'd love to see it, but I would not count on it.
Think, TRIBY management is looking at a 30% growth rate. They are supposed to have since predicted a year of .09. That works, rounded, with a 30% increase as my numbers showed before. To make it actual, you need a little higher % growth rate, but not too much.
But to go from .02 to .03 in 2 qtrs is a 100% annual rate. I sure would not bet on it.
Again, I'd love to hear substantive news on the HIV front.
Keiko or TRIBY management, if your listening, If you have met all the requests from the FDA for additional data, and If they have responsed positively and if they have given you good reason to believe we'll see approval within 2 months, please let us know, somehow. We really do need some substantive good news.
Hope this answers the latest questions satisfactorially. I've spent way too much time on this now, and further back and forth would not be real productive. Scott
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