hal--
well, we will have to wait for the numbers from GTE, both ILEC and CLEC, as well as BEL (this summer) and USWest, and pacbell. worldwide i think 500k lines is a no brainer. hell, you can get 100k in the austin area alone. i wish we were pacbell.
as for the issues related to deployment, as far as installation, a lot of internet users are pretty adept at installing components. i feel pretty sure with halfway decent instructions, i can hook one up. this will allow us to go far above the target #s. of course, mass market, and household names for the players will have to wait until 2000, but until then, we have earnings suprises, and real deployments to keep the stock up. BEL is pretty serious about the deployment, and as soon as the FCC makes policy, it will begin.
as for the players, i agree with you on CSCO, but only for the short term. we simply do not know enough about the netspeed modem. in addition, are they going to have a DMT offering, and when? my view on the USWest deployment is that they wanted to get started, and didnt care about line code(kind of like BEL). in the future they might.
3com is a loser. they will eventually manage to screw up even palm pilot, not to mention their modem business. all it takes is AWRE or WSTL whoring around taiwan and all the profit from the R side will fall away like a bad facade. of course, this could affect us as well, but since we have already off loaded our R business, it wont hit us quite as hard.
i love ORCTF. but, IMHO, ADSL is not the big deal with them. i am waiting for VDSL. long after i have sold out of WSTL, i will still be holding ORCTF.
efficient will probably be bought out by MSFT. its like a black hole.
redback-- yeah, they will do well, but others will move into the space. would be good if WSTL could buy them....
still waiting to hear more....
good luck to all,
trey |
