How about revenues from the disposable refills?
According to your post, only 2700 were in the field by the middle of February. Assuming $1 per refill and 10 refills used per working day, and 20 days per month, then 2700 field units will consume $27,000 worth of refills daily, or about $600,000 per month. By the end of May, with 5000 units in the field, the refills will be running $50,000 a work day, or $1.1M a month. By the time 12,000 units are in the field, the refills will be running about $120,000 a day, or $2.65M a month. This is over $30M a year for the refills just to satisfy the 12,000 units they have on order. This blows away your logic in your post.
Add to that, your estimate of 1000 new unit sales every 2.5 months is about 1200 per quarter. Additional sales of 1200 or so units per Q, adds about $5M in unit sales per year, and an additional $3M in sales of refills per year. Using your ramp rate, by next summer, the company could be generating revenues at an annual run rate of almost $40M a year. This is $33-35M for refills annually and $5-7M for new unit purchases annually.
I'm just using your assumptions to generate these estimates. Where am I going wrong?
Paul |
