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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion
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To: gerald tseng who wrote (11425)5/7/1998 6:23:00 AM
From: paul e thomas  Read Replies (1) of 13949
 
Gerald, I am going into a defensive mode also but still staying 100% in Y2K.When I step back I should not have been really surprised by the current rotation out of Y2K stocks as last fall I had told my wife I thought it would be prudent for me to get out just before the March quarter earnings came out.I essentially stopped buying tool companies at the end of December with the exception of a foray into COGIF which I just liquidated at a moderate loss. I have taken a lot more profits on SYNT than I wanted and at a much higher marginal tax rate than I had hoped I could stay at without being stupid about holding long term.I will be reducing my IMRS holdings by selling about 2000 shares I now hold at a loss out of the 15000 shares I hold. I now hold call options on about 12,000 shares which at cost equals about 8% of the current value of my IMRS stock.I therefore have some upside leverage if IMRS rallies by Mid June or August at the latest. I continue to believe that Y2k stocks with a strong post year 2000 story to tell will come back in favor. I expect that in the TAVA conference call next week important insights will be gained on the longer term prospects.There were three pieces of news in recent days about strong Y2K service companies that support my contention that they will come back in favor over time. The 1999 earnings estimates for SYNT were just increased 20%. In the case of IMRS it was mentioned in an Reuters release as one of two stocks singled out as undervalued by some renown stock pickers.The Raymond James analyst following IMRS just raised his 5 year growth rate by 15% to the rarified level of 52% per year.This would translate into a year 2000 EPS of 1.45$ against the current price of 27$.
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