No hostility, Lucretius, I am tweaking your nose. So that wasn't you parading around around with a sign saying the "end is near"?
I'm amazed at how you rationalize some things. On the one hand you pointed to past increases in the price of gold as being a harbinger of imminent economic disaster, and when the price of gold falls, it is only a buying opportunity! And then you go on to say: "Supply has been shrinking while demand has increased ...". Unfortunately for your argument, the data don't bear this out. If that were true prices would be going uo, but they aren't.
Regarding Fleckenstein, I really don't follow him other than to occasionally read his opinions about companies I own. For those companies he has a dismal track record. He always seems to be short Dell, and he has been consistently wrong here. Now, that really shouldn't be much of a surprise. Why? Because it is futile to try to time the market or its narrower component sectors, and any of these geniuses that do eventually end up sounding silly. There is a quip that the market has successfully predicted four of the last three recessions, so the market movements themselves are chaotic.
As far as I am concerned, the questions of real import are the direction the economy is headed in the next decade, and what impact will y2k problems create for the economy. As I indicated before, I am becoming more uneasy with the Asian economies, particularly Japan. Japan is one of the last places I'd choose to put my money, if for no other reason tan the possibility of a significant weakening of the yen vis a vis the USD.
TTFN,
CTC
|
