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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?
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To: eRM Solutions who wrote (1502)5/7/1998 7:07:00 PM
From: Clam Clam  Read Replies (1) of 6974
 
>>IMO the end of the SFA/CIS war is near and Seibel is clearly the victor.

I don't know what you are talking about. The SFA/CIS war is only in round 2. SEBL won SFA round 1 and VNTV won Support round 1. Round 2 is to be decided. Its the best marketing company (Siebel) vs. the best integrated product offering (Vantive). It is quite possible that both succeed.

>>Once they are effectively dealt with this co. is going to be grooving along at a 150% growth rate per year.

150%? Really. SFA grew 73% last quarter. Service revenues were the driver last quarter but that product overlaps with Scopus's support product. Margins can't help much from here so 150% EPS growth would have to be on 150%+ revenue growth. Given that many of the existing customer seats that have been recognized as revenue up front for Siebel still aren't up and running, growth is going to have to come from new customers. The Motorola win is nice but they have got a lot to go if they want to grow 15-20% this quarter (sequentially). Selling into Scopus's installed base is critical. However, key is pricing on selling SFA seats to existing Scopus customers who already paid $2-3+k and are now supposed to pony up another $3k+ for SEBL SFA functionality. VNTV does it all for $3,500.
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