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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (3402)	5/8/1998 5:25:00 AM
From: tom	Read Replies (3) of 9980

Thomas & Stich Good be back. As usual there is more usual info on this thread that there is in the huge piles of investment bank research that I get sent every day. I wish I had something positive to say on Asia but I don't (probably a good buying signal). Did you see the comments from Yi Gang, Chief Economist of Chinese Central Bank, talking about how bad the Chinese economy was with real interest rates too high, Non Performing Loans being 25% of total loans and deflation being a real problem. Somehow I think the consensus view of China being able to get 7-8% GDP growth this year seems a bit unrealistic. I personally think the chances of a devaluation are at least 25%. Meanwhile The Tiger Fund is rumoured to be lining up another attack on the HK$ (as reported in the Oriental Daily). Indo I think we can just forget about, Malaysia will prolong the agony for as long as possible making it a poor investment location. Thailand and Korea will be interesting soon but they're still too expensive.

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