...else to say...
Friday, May 08, 1998
The Day Ahead: Little upside left for Macromedia
By Larry Dignan, ZD Inter@ctive Investor
May 7, 1998 7:01pm
Inter@ctive Week Online
Macromedia Inc. impressed Wall Street with strong fourth-quarter earnings of $1.99 million, or 5 cents a share, but don't expect much more pop from its shares -- they are topped out for now.
While Macromedia shares have been run up to 52-week highs (chart), the stock's just about out of gas, barring an acquisition or merger with Adobe. A merger between collaborators Macromedia and Adobe Systems Inc. isn't imminent, but could happen in the next year or so, said analysts.
A merger between Macromedia and Adobe would provide little overlap and would be a strategic fit, said analysts.
"I could see the two eventually merging," said Steven Frenkel, director of research at Paragon Capital Corp., based in New York. "Macromedia is already working with Adobe to make the products compatible. It makes a lot of sense."
But without any additional news to drive Macromedia shares, the stock doesn't have a lot of upside left.
"There's no more upside at this price," said Frenkel. "I put it in my portfolio in January around $7 and it's run up to $16. The stock has peaked and so have many tech stocks in my opinion." said Frenkel, who bailed out on Macromedia two weeks ago.
Greg Vogel, an analyst with NationsBanc Montgomery Securities, wouldn't go as far to say there's no upside in Macromedia shares, but indicated that the company needs to show some new revenue streams to justify the price.
Vogel said Macromedia could get a lot of sales from distributing training presentations over the Web.
Macromedia's stock performance is impressive for a company that has struggled in recent quarters. Management has stabalized after last year's revolving door.
Last November, John Parsons, chief financial officer, quit after only 10 months on the job. CEO Rob Burgess has been on the job about a year after founder Bud Colligan was bumped upstairs as chairman.
"Management has stabalized, but the question is can they make things happen," said Vogel. The Web development market is saturated and the company has been stung by its inability to deliver products in the past, he said.
The latest Macromedia turnaround has been fueled by importance of video on the Web and the launch of new products such as Dreamweaver, said Frenkel.
Fourth quarter revenue of $30 million was a 127 percent improvement over the same quarter a year ago.
Apple's rebound also helps out Macromedia even though the software maker went into rehab over the last year trying to get over its Mac dependency. For the fourth quarter, Windows and cross-platform product revenue was 55 percent of total sales with Macintosh products making up the remainder.
Macromedia has a lot to be upbeat about and its collaboration with Adobe may be paving the way for something more concrete.
But there are probably better buys elsewhere.
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