Hi Rosemary, My own market risk indicator popped into the High Risk area 5 weeks ago. I don't use it to "trade" the market or individual stock, but rather as a barometer. It hasn't had a Low Risk period since the late part of 1990.
This indicator doesn't give a "the sky is falling" type of indication, but more like "Well, there's been better times to start an account." Of the four components, Relative Valuation, Speculation, Divergence and Zeal, the first two are in their own high risk areas, the third is heading up towards high risk and the last, Zeal, is in the low risk area. I should note that my Zeal reading has been misled a bit recently with the large number of stocks leaving NASDAQ for the NYSE (JBL included). I'm in the process of changing it to include the NYSE.
I really only get worked up when all four components are in the high risk area. We're not there.
JBL is behaving very well. I'll sideline a bit of cash if the price gets above the $45-$46 range. That would give me a LIFO gain of about 40% from those recent purchases in the low $30s. Hope I get to realize those gains!
Best regards, Tom |
