I pretty much agree with this list (AMAT, NVLS, LRCX, SVGI, KLAC, UTEK, EGLS)with a couple of exceptions:
LRCX - Could be left behind in the recovery (whenever that is)
EGLS - Might not make it through the rough spots, but if it does, will do well.
I think a better approach to all this is who will consolidate (merge, be aquired) with who(m). I think in 5-10 years out the biz model for all semi equipment is to provide, and perhaps lease fab services. AMAT is a couple of acquisitions away from being able to offer "turn-key" fabs. This is a great biz model, and is common in capital intensive industries, like chemicals (fabs are a batch chemical process, right?). Furthermore, fabs will be so expensive and complicated that only the people that design and make the equipment could possibly run them. Also imagine being able to lease a fab....
With this in mind, how does a KLAC-LRCX-NVLS conglomerate stack up against AMAT????
Yours in idle speculation;
McDuck |
