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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation
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To: Wolf 2 who wrote (12247)5/8/1998 4:38:00 PM
From: shane forbes  Read Replies (1) of 25814
 
WolfMan:

There is a 12 month lag and then likely another 6-12 months before the significant revenues start coming in.

For instance the "PlayStashun" I figure was designed late 1993 to mid-1994, revenues must have been reasonable in 1995, were significant in 1996 (Sony was 14%) and very significant in 1997 (22%?).

Thus DVD in 1998 is likely the same as PlayStashun was in 1995. The big year is next year, the really big year is 2000 and foward.

Ditto timeframe for DCAM.

Fibre Channel in 1998 is probably around 1996 for the PlayStayShun.

However all the last 3 have much longer time frames than the PlayStashun chip. Revenues may not be as large initially but they will alll be significant.

GSM and CDMA in 1998 are where the PlayStashun was in 1994/5. They will be big in 1999 and huge in 2000.

All roads lead to 2000 or we shall hope.

The big question in my mind is what happened to the continuity - in 1996 and 1997 - what happened to all the momentum developed in the previous 3 years? Inventory shcminventory. It could not have been the entire problem. What happened to all the R&D that was done in 1994/1995 that should have produced big product lines in 1996 and 1997.

It is almost as if the company did not spend enough R&D in 1994/1995 and had to do some big time catch-up in 1996 and 1997. Or else it was the EDA tools etc etc. Almost as if in 1996 and upto mid 1997 they were big time confused and just said to heck with it all the money goes into R&D. 1998/1999 should see the benefits of all that R&D spending in 1996/1997.

shane.
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