Dave,
You asked if LOR is overvalued. The only sure answer to your question is that a stock is worth whatever the market will pay; and that varies minute by minute, day by day. Beyond this, its all guess work.
Given all the caveats about predicting the future, it is my opinion that if you approach the answer to your question from a date 4 to 5 years in the future, that the difference between $20/share and $30/share won't seem that significant.
The commercial satcom business is relatively new and therefore could be subject to who knows what kind of gyrations(political, commercial, astronomical, whatever). The rewards could be large but so are the risks. I took my initial position in LOR in the early smoke and mirrors days in May 1996, on the strength of the managements' track record. The probabilities for LOR have improved considerably since then. I believe that it is still early; the company's best days are ahead of it. If the LOR story remains good, my style is to make incremental buys over time and I don't mind paying up. Sometimes the market will run a special sale on shares; if you believe in the company's prospects, this is when you can get a real steal. However, if it would be too stressful to see the value of your investment go down, maybe way down, I would recommend that you not invest.
Frank |
