<<<<Truth is... eventually you will be right. But you might as well change your name to Bill Fleckenstein. You may be touting the decline for some time, but in doing so you've missed out on some big gains in the past few weeks.
I guess that's the argument between LT investing and timing. AFter all, that's really what you've done here - attempted to time to the market. >>>
Baz, feel no need to explain my investment decisions to you or validate why I chose a certain path. I will only say this, there are plenty of places to make money besides the US equities mkt w/ a whole hell of alot less risk. I don't know when this will all come to an end, but it will slowly grind to a halt. All the siigns are in place. Ignore them if you want. It's your money. Who knows? maybe we're headed for even more bloated levels in the S-T, but I am a L-T investor. I see no L-T future in US equities (unless one is short) This equation of "timing the mkt" w/ "futile effort" has been pounded into the public by Wallstreet, much to their benefit I might add. Who do you think will leave the party last and w/ the least in their pockets????
Let me ask you this: If you were going to buy a new '99 volks bug, and prices were sky high and out of all proportion because of huge mania for the new car at the moment. Would you just shrug your shoulders and say "can't time the mkt? Gotta buy it now." HELL NO. You wait a few months or a yr for the cost to come back to earth, or you just buy a different car. Throwing common sense of valuation and basics of investing (like buy low and sell high) out the window are not called for when investing in equities, just like real estate, art, or your favorite new car.
-Lucretius
BTW-- I believe the mkt is down from when I turned bearish, eh? but that's just S-T, and nothing to pound one's chest about. Talk to me again in about 6 months, and we'll see how we're doing. And ask me how, other investments besides US equities are fairing in comparison. |
