<<Let me ask you this: If you were going to buy a new '99 volks bug, and prices were sky high and out of all proportion because of huge mania for the new car at the moment. Would you just shrug your shoulders and say "can't time the mkt? Gotta buy it now." HELL NO.>>
Two answers to this:
1. No, I wouldn't buy the CAR itself, I would buy the company that makes them - Volkswagen, which I've happily owned for two years now. That's my point. Don't buy into the product. Understand that there's an irrational frenzy and capitalize on it. Your scenario doesn't totally hold water, because cars immediately depreciate in value. If you told me that I could buy the bug and that if the frenzy continued, I could resell that bug for twice its value in six months, then hell yes, I'd buy it.
2. I'm not saying to throw valuation out the window completely. But our styles differ in that I factor market psychology into the effect a bit more. But, that's what makes a market after all.
By the way, you know me well enough by now to note that I don't expect you to explain or validate anything to me.
Nothing I read or post here changes the way I invest, and I imagine it doesn't affect what you do in your investments either. I post more for the interesting conversations and discussions that develop, and yours are some of the more intersting ones, and you're a great debator - it's fun!
Regards,
Baz |
